Certification Revenue Estimate 2016-17

Table 4 – Texas Economic History and Outlook for Fiscal Years 2008 to 2017
Fall 2015 Forecast

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015*	2016*	2017*
TEXAS ECONOMY
Real Gross State Product (Billion 2009 $)	1,172	1,171	1,193	1,230	1,304	1,376	1,455	1,490	1,526	1,561
Annual percent change	1.2	(0.1)	1.8	3.2	6.0	5.5	5.8	2.4	2.4	2.3
Nominal Gross State Product (Billion $)	1,242	1,176	1,225	1,323	1,424	1,530	1,632	1,643	1,695	1,768
Annual percent change	7.5	(5.3)	4.2	8.0	7.7	7.4	6.6	0.7	3.2	4.3
Personal Income (Billion $)	950	927	943	1,032	1,104	1,157	1,206	1,264	1,323	1,401
Annual percent change	10.0	(2.4)	1.7	9.4	7.0	4.8	4.2	4.8	4.7	5.9
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)	10,583	10,403	10,287	10,511	10,789	11,129	11,456	11,775	11,974	12,190
Annual percent change	2.6	(1.7)	(1.1)	2.2	2.6	3.2	2.9	2.8	1.7	1.8
Resident Population (Thousands)	24,250	24,738	25,193	25,607	26,038	26,456	26,900	27,350	27,795	28,275
Annual percent change	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7
Unemployment Rate (Percent)	4.5	6.9	8.2	7.8	6.9	6.2	5.3	4.4	4.3	4.4
NYMEX Oil Price ($per Barrel)	101.93	64.09	76.32	91.25	94.28	93.65	101.05	64.94	49.48	56.52
NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($per Million BTUs)	8.47	5.91	4.44	4.20	3.10	3.48	4.18	3.34	2.91	3.05
U.S. ECONOMY
Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 2009 $)	14,934	14,428	14,685	14,958	15,306	15,489	15,864	16,238	16,652	17,138
Annual percent change	0.9	(3.4)	1.8	1.9	2.3	1.2	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.9
Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100)	214.4	213.8	217.4	223.1	228.5	232.3	236.0	236.8	239.7	245.2
Annual percent change	2.3	(0.3)	1.7	2.6	2.4	1.6	1.6	0.3	1.2	2.3
Prime Interest Rate (Percent)	6.0	3.5	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.9	5.1

*Estimated or projected
SOURCES: Glenn Hegar, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts; and IHS Global, Inc.